Market Value

Market value_key figure

Energy Economics. The market value of wind decreases with the increase of wind market share. We explain why and quantify the value loss whith the help of empirical market data, quantitative literature review, and numerical modeling with EMMA. 30% wind in the system devalue wind-derived electricity by 20% – 40% in comparison to today. Article  |  free

Optimal Share

Optimal share_key figure

The Energy Journal. What is the welfare-optimal share of wind and solar energy in the european power mix? We present an overview over models which concern themselves with this question and provide our own estimates derived via EMMA. Benchmark assumptions put the optimal wind share at 20% – and solar share on zero.
Article  |  free  |  discussion


Redistribution_key figure

Energy Policy. The promotion of renewables raises electricity production and therefore lowers electricity prices. This pleases consumers but reduces profits of power plant operators. We quantify this re-distribution effect with EMMA and compare it with the (opposite) effect of CO2 trading.
Article  |  free

Balancing Power

Balancing_key figure

Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews. Because of their inherent forecasting errors wind and solar energy trigger a higher demand for balancing energy (15-60 MW per GW, depending on the estimate). The prices paid for these errors do not reflect the true costs of balancing energy. But renewables can also be a source of balancing energy – if the market entry barriers would be lowered.
Working paper  |  free

Economics of Electricity

The Energy Journal. Electricity is a particular good: perfectly homogenous, but still, prices fluctuate wildly within only a few hours. Simplistic metrics like “levelized electricity costs” and “net parity” are often misleading as they ignore this variability in electicity’s value.

System costs

Renewable Energy. Generation of wind and solar electricity is variable, subject to forecasting errors, and often the resulting energy has to be transported over great distances. We present these three characteristics as decreases in the value of electricity and quantify them, based on a literature review.
Article  |  free  |  award

Market Value of Solar

IET Renewable Power Generation. The market value of solar falls faster than that of wind – because solar generation is concentrated in relatively few hours of the year. Metrics like “net parity” ignore this and are therefore not suited to an economic evaluation.
Artikel  |  free

Wind, sun & balancing energy

energiewirtschaftliche tagesfragen. Between 2008 and 2013 cumulated solar and wind capacity in Germany has doubled. At the same time balancing energy could be reduced by 20%. A paradox of the Energiewende?
Article (German)  |  free  |  Chinese



List of publications

Lion has published 24 articles in economics and engineering journals, including single-author papers in the leading field outlets Energy Economics, The Energy Journal, and Applied Energy. His “Market Value” paper is the most cited article in Energy Economics in recent years (see ranking) as is “Optimal Share” in The Energy Journal (see ranking). Google Scholar lists a total of 2900 citations, yielding an h-index of 22. RePEc lists Lion among the top 5% energy economists and among the top 10 of all economists of the cohort 2014. Lion’s publications have won several awards, including the best paper award of the International Association for Energy Economics.

Google scholar  |  RePEc  |  ResearchGate  |  SSRN  |  All papers (zip)


First-authored articles in peer-reviewed journals

Open Data for Electricity Modeling: Legal Aspects, Energy Strategy Reviews, 2020. open access

The ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. An assessment of Europe’s most ambitious electricity data platform, Applied Energy, 2018 (w/ Jonathan Mühlenpfordt & Marisa Bulkeley). open access

What caused the drop of European electricity prices? A factor decomposition analysis, The Energy Journal, 2018. open access

The benefits of flexibility: The value of wind energy with hydropower, Applied Energy, 2016. pdf

The role of capital costs for decarbonizing the power sector, Environmental Research Letters, 2016 (w/ Jan Steckel). pdf

System-friendly Wind Power, Energy Economics, 2016 (w/ Simon Müller). pdf | Best paper award INREC

Why Wind is not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity GenerationThe Energy Journal, 2016 (w/ Falko Ueckerdt & Ottmar Edenhofer). pdf

Balancing Power and Variable Renewables: Three Links, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015 (w/ Inka Ziegenhagen). pdf

Integration Costs Revisited – An economic framework of wind and solar variabilityRenewable Energy, 2015 (w/ Falko Ueckerdt & Ottmar Edenhofer). pdf Best paper award IAEEBest poster award IEWT | Best paper award IEWT

The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables: How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power affects their Welfare-optimal DeploymentThe Energy Journal, 2015.  pdf review

The Market Value of Solar Power: Is Photovoltaics Cost-Competitive?IET Renewable Power Generation, 2015. pdf | Selected paper Solar Integration Workshop

The Market Value of Variable Renewables: The effect of solar wind power variability on their relative priceEnergy Economics, 2013. pdf

Redistribution Effects of Energy and Climate Policy: The electricity marketEnergy Policy, 2013 (w/ Falko Ueckerdt). pdf


Co-authored articles in peer-reviewed journals

Flexible power and hydrogen production: Finding synergy between CCS and variable renewables, Energy, 2019 (w/ Schalk Cloete). open access

Technology-neutral auctions for renewable energy: EU law vs. reality in Member States, Journal for European Enviromental & Planning Law, 2019 (w/ Lars Jerrentrup, Bastian Lotz & Silvana Tiedemann). pdf

Time series of heat demand and heat pump efficiency for energy system modeling, Nature Scientific Data, 2019. (w/ Oliver Ruhnau & Aaron Praktiknjo). open access

Short-Term Electricity Trading for System Balancing, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2019 (w/ Christopher Koch). pdf

Open Power System Data – Frictionless data for electricity system modelling, Applied Energy, 2019 (w/ Frauke Wiese, Ingmar Schlecht, Juliane Reimann, Clemens Gerbaulet, Martin Jahn, Jonathan Mühlenpfordt, Friedrich Kunz, Wolf-Peter Schill & Casimir Lorenz). pdf

Opening the black box of energy modelling: strategies and lessons learned, Energy Strategy Reviews, 2018 (w/ Stefan Pfenninger, Ingmar Schlecht, Eva Schmid, Frauke Wiese, Tom Brown, Chris Davis, Matthew Gidden, Heidi Heinrichs & Clara Heuberger). open access

The importance of open data and software: is energy research lagging behind?, Energy Policy, 2017 (w/ Stefan Pfenninger, Joseph DeCarolis, Sylvain Quoilin & Iain Staffell). open access

Carpe diem: A novel approach to select representative days for long-term power system models with high shares of renewable energy sources, Energy, 2016 (w/ Paul Nahmmacher, Eva Schmid & Brigitte Knopf). open access

On the Economics of Renewable Energy Sources, Energy Economics, 2013 (w/ Ottmar Edenhofer, Brigitte Knopf, Michael Pahle, Steffen Schloemer, Eva Schmid & Falko Ueckerdt). pdf

System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables?, Energy, 2013 (w/ Falko Ueckerdt, Gunnar Luderer & Ottmar Edenhofer). pdf

Carbon lock-out: Advancing renewable energy policy in Europe, Energies, 2012 (w/ Paul Lehmann, Felix Creutzig, Melf-Hinrich Ehlers, Nele Friedrichsen, Clemens Heuson & Robert Pietzcker). open access


Working paper / under review

Heating with Wind, EconStor, 2019 (w/ Oliver Ruhnau & Aaron Praktiknjo)

Locational investment signals in electricity markets, EconStor, 2019 (w/ Anselm Eicke & Tarun Khanna)

Markets for Local Flexibility in Distribution Networks, EconStor, 2019 (w/ Julia Radecke & Joseph Hefele)

The Impact of Power Sector Reforms in Developing Economies, EconStor, 2019 (w/ Andrea Dertinger)

Redispatch Markets in Zonal Electricity Markets, EconStor, 2019 (w/ Ingmar Schlecht).  

Congestion Management: From Physics to Regulatory Instruments, EconStor, 2018 (w/ Samuel Glismann)

Eyes on the price: Which power generation technologies set the market price?, FEEM Working Paper, 2018 (w/ Eike Blume-Werry, Thomas Faber, Claus Huber & Martin Everts)

The Market Value of Wind and Solar Power: An Analytical Approach, IAEE Working Paper, 2016 (w/ Alexander Radebach)

Minimal Thermal Generation in Power Systems, IAEE Working Paper, 2015.

How much electricity do we consume? A guide to German and European electricity consumption and generation data, FEEM Working Paper, 2014 (w/ Maximilian Schumacher).



The Economics of Wind and Solar Variability, TU Berlin, 2014.


Other publications

The importance of open data and software for energy research and policy advise, SETIS Magazine, 2016 (w/ Stefan Pfenninger, Joseph DeCarolis, Sylvain Quoilin & Iain Staffell).

Übertragungsnetzbetreiber erwarten massiven Wertverlust für Solarstrom, Phasenprüfer, 7 January 2016 (with Jakob Schlandt)

Jenseits des Sündenbocks Erneuerbare: Was hat den Verfall des Börsenstrompreises wirklich verursacht? , Phasenprüfer, 13 August 2015 (with Christoph Weber).

Das Ende der Grundlast, Phasenprüfer, 26 May 2015.

Solarstrom – an der Börse immer weniger wert, pv magazine, 23 April 2015.

Die Ökonomie der Energiewende, Phasenprüfer, 9 March 2015.

Wind, Sonne und Regelleistung, energiewirtschaftliche tagesfragen, 2013 (with Inka Ziegenhagen). pdfMandarin

The Decreasing Market Value of Variable Renewables: Integration Options and Deadlocks, in: Detlef Stolten & Viktor Scherer (eds.): Transition to Renewable Energy Systems: Energy Process Engineering, Wiley, 2013 (with Falko Ueckerdt). pdf


Press coverage

Die versteckten Kosten der Erneuerbaren, NZZ, 2019

Europe risks costly mistake with redispatch markets, Montel News, 2018

Wind and Solar Power Advance, but Carbon Refuses to Retreat, New York Times, 2017

Vattenkraft förbättrar vindkraftens lönsamhet, Second Opinion, 2016 (Swedish)

3 Ways Wind and Solar Can Continue To Grow In a 21st-Century Grid, Rocky Mountain Institute Outlet, 2015

Renewable energy sector runs the risk of overpowering market, Financial Times, 2015. pdf

No business case for lots of wind and solar, Energy Transition, 2015

Strom aus Erneuerbaren kannibalisiert sich selbst, Handelsblatt, 2015 (German)

A Look at Wind and Solar, Part 2: Is There An Upper Limit To Variable Renewables?, TheEnergyCollective, 2015

The Optimal Share of Intermittent Renewables, TheEnergyCollective, 2014

Doe windenergie niet af als kostenpost van miljarden euro’s, NRC, 2014 (Dutch)