Energy Economics. The market value of wind decreases with the increase of wind market share. We explain why and quantify the value loss whith the help of empirical market data, quantitative literature review, and numerical modeling with EMMA. 30% wind in the system devalue wind-derived electricity by 20% – 40% in comparison to today. Article | free
The Energy Journal. What is the welfare-optimal share of wind and solar energy in the european power mix? We present an overview over models which concern themselves with this question and provide our own estimates derived via EMMA. Benchmark assumptions put the optimal wind share at 20% – and solar share on zero.
Article | free | discussion
Energy Policy. The promotion of renewables raises electricity production and therefore lowers electricity prices. This pleases consumers but reduces profits of power plant operators. We quantify this re-distribution effect with EMMA and compare it with the (opposite) effect of CO2 trading.
Article | free
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews. Because of their inherent forecasting errors wind and solar energy trigger a higher demand for balancing energy (15-60 MW per GW, depending on the estimate). The prices paid for these errors do not reflect the true costs of balancing energy. But renewables can also be a source of balancing energy – if the market entry barriers would be lowered.
Working paper | free
Economics of Electricity
The Energy Journal. Electricity is a particular good: perfectly homogenous, but still, prices fluctuate wildly within only a few hours. Simplistic metrics like “levelized electricity costs” and “net parity” are often misleading as they ignore this variability in electicity’s value.
Renewable Energy. Generation of wind and solar electricity is variable, subject to forecasting errors, and often the resulting energy has to be transported over great distances. We present these three characteristics as decreases in the value of electricity and quantify them, based on a literature review.
Article | free | award
List of publications
Articles in peer-reviewed journals (main author)
- The role of capital costs for decarbonizing the power sector, Environmental Research Letters, 2016 (w/ Jan Steckel). pdf
- The beneﬁts of ﬂexibility: The value of wind energy with hydropower, Applied Energy, 2016. pdf
- System-friendly Wind Power, Energy Economics, 2016 (w/ Simon Müller). pdf | Best paper award INREC
- Why Wind is not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity Generation, The Energy Journal, 2016 (w/ Falko Ueckerdt & Ottmar Edenhofer). pdf
- Balancing Power and Variable Renewables: Three Links, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015 (w/ Inka Ziegenhagen). pdf
- Integration Costs Revisited – An economic framework of wind and solar variability, Renewable Energy, 2015 (w/ Falko Ueckerdt & Ottmar Edenhofer). pdf | Best paper award IAEE | Best poster award IEWT | Best paper award IEWT
- The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables: How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment, The Energy Journal, 2015. pdf | review
- The Market Value of Solar Power: Is Photovoltaics Cost-Competitive?, IET Renewable Power Generation, 2015. pdf | Selected paper Solar Integration Workshop
- The Market Value of Variable Renewables: The effect of solar wind power variability on their relative price, Energy Economics, 2013. pdf
- Redistribution Effects of Energy and Climate Policy: The electricity market, Energy Policy, 2013 (w/ Falko Ueckerdt). pdf
Articles in peer-reviewed journals (Co-Autor)
- The importance of open data and software: is energy research lagging behind?, Energy Policy, 2017 (w/ Stefan Pfenninger, Joseph DeCarolis, Sylvain Quoilin & Iain Staffell). open access
- Carpe diem: A novel approach to select representative days for long-term power system models with high shares of renewable energy sources, Energy, 2016 (w/ Paul Nahmmacher, Eva Schmid & Brigitte Knopf).
- On the Economics of Renewable Energy Sources, Energy Economics, 2013 (w/ Ottmar Edenhofer, Brigitte Knopf, Michael Pahle, Steffen Schloemer, Eva Schmid & Falko Ueckerdt). pdf
- System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables?, Energy, 2013 (w/ Falko Ueckerdt, Gunnar Luderer & Ottmar Edenhofer). pdf
- Carbon lock-out: Advancing renewable energy policy in Europe, Energies, 2012 (w/ Paul Lehmann, Felix Creutzig, Melf-Hinrich Ehlers, Nele Friedrichsen, Clemens Heuson & Robert Pietzcker). open acces
Working papers / in review
- What caused the drop of European electricity prices? A factor decomposition analysis, USAEE Working Paper, 2016.
- The Market Value of Wind and Solar Power: an Analytical Approach, USAEE Working Paper, 2016 (w/ Alexander Radebach).
- Minimal Thermal Generation in Power Systems, USAEE Working Paper, 2015.
- How much electricity do we consume? A guide to German and European electricity consumption and generation data, FEEM Working Paper, 2014 (w/ Maximilian Schumacher).
- The Economics of Wind and Solar Variability, TU Berlin, 2014.
- The importance of open data and software for energy research and policy advise, SETIS Magazine, 2016 (w/ Stefan Pfenninger, Joseph DeCarolis, Sylvain Quoilin & Iain Staffell).
- Übertragungsnetzbetreiber erwarten massiven Wertverlust für Solarstrom, Phasenprüfer, 7 January 2015 (with Jakob Schlandt)
- Jenseits des Sündenbocks Erneuerbare: Was hat den Verfall des Börsenstrompreises wirklich verursacht? , Phasenprüfer, 13 August 2015 (with Christoph Weber).
- Das Ende der Grundlast, Phasenprüfer, 26 May 2015.
- Solarstrom – an der Börse immer weniger wert, pv magazine, 23 April 2015.
- Die Ökonomie der Energiewende, Phasenprüfer, 9 March 2015.
- Wind, Sonne und Regelleistung, energiewirtschaftliche tagesfragen, 2013 (with Inka Ziegenhagen). pdf | Mandarin
- The Decreasing Market Value of Variable Renewables: Integration Options and Deadlocks, in: Detlef Stolten & Viktor Scherer (eds.): Transition to Renewable Energy Systems: Energy Process Engineering, Wiley, 2013 (with Falko Ueckerdt). pdf
- Vattenkraft förbättrar vindkraftens lönsamhet, Second Opinion, 2016 (Swedish).
- 3 Ways Wind and Solar Can Continue To Grow In a 21st-Century Grid, Rocky Mountain Institute Outlet, 2015.
- Renewable energy sector runs the risk of overpowering market, Financial Times, 2015. pdf
- No business case for lots of wind and solar, Energy Transition, 2015.
- Strom aus Erneuerbaren kannibalisiert sich selbst, Handelsblatt, 2015 (German).
- A Look at Wind and Solar, Part 2: Is There An Upper Limit To Variable Renewables?, TheEnergyCollective, 2015.
- The Optimal Share of Intermittent Renewables, TheEnergyCollective, 2014.
- Doe windenergie niet af als kostenpost van miljarden euro’s, NRC, 2014 (Dutch).